Can We Survive Another Carrington Event?

A Modern Carrington Event

Carrington realized that the bright light he saw (the CME) was related to the geomagnetic storm Earth experienced 17 hours later. It was the first time this connection between events had been made.

Today, this same intensity storm would have severe consequences, including widespread electrical disruptions and interruptions to global communications. (NASA)

Damage would involve widespread power grid failures –– large parts of the grid down for weeks at a time. After all, our power grids in the US have already been shown to be quite vulnerable to threats like ice and cyberhacks, so a geomagnetic threat would like be catastrophic. Satellite and GPS disruption would occur, as would aviation issues and major communications outages. There would be no internet, and banking systems would be impacted. You couldn’t even get gas because the pumps wouldn’t work. Radio communications would likely be impacted as well.

Solar flares bathe the planet in radiation, including X-rays. The radiation interacts with the ionosphere, the Earth layer that reflects radio waves. Earth’s magnetic field offers protection by forming a “shield” called the magnetosphere. It deflects most of the charged particles that come from these sun events. Some solar particles creep into the Earth’s polar regions, creating the beautiful aurora borealis. The displays are harmless to humans.

Earth’s atmosphere (the ozone layer in particular) also acts as an additional layer of protection because it absorbs most of the harmful UV radiation from the solar events. The ionosphere is part of the atmosphere, and it absorbs much of the energetic particles. Satellites operate in the ionosphere, therefore communications can be disrupted.

Many aircraft use high-frequency communications using a skywave that bounces a signal off the ionosphere. During a solar flare, the signal simply won’t bounce, disrupting communications.

Can We Prepare?

The US definitely needs grid hardening to enhance the resilience of power grids to withstand geomagnetically-induced currents. The vulnerabilities in the U.S. power grid are multifaceted and stem from multiple issues: outdated infrastructure, cybersecurity threats, and physical vulnerabilities. Solar events further weaken an already weak system.

Is it too little too late?

Satellites are shielded to be more resistant, but then again, is it enough? NASA has advanced systems to track solar activity to provide early warnings, but nothing can be done to stop these natural phenomena from occurring.

It is also very difficult to estimate how often such storms might hit Earth. Scientists think we barely escaped getting hit by one such huge storm that erupted from the sun in July 2012. It was at least as strong as the Carrington Event and could have cost over $2 trillion in damage. But it missed the Earth.

It’s not a matter of if, but when. Now is a good time to prepare if you haven’t already.